For the first game we'll be a little long winded about what we are doing. Think of it as talking yourself through it.
Mumbai won the toss and elected to field first.
First we need to set up the starting XI in order. Adding up the first 3 columns is no problem, and then working out the top 4 bowlers by runs per 4 overs. If there is ever a tie for 4^{th} and 5^{th} place then the better wicket/ 4 overs is used. If this is also a tie then it actually doesn't matter which you use. So first we delete all but the six best bowlers and then adjust the stats of 5^{th} and 6^{th} place before adding up the bowling totals.
Name 
Runs 
Balls 
Fielding 
Runs/4 overs 
Wkts/4 Overs 
F du Plessis 
22 
19 
0.29 
28 
1.79 
M Vijay 
27 
21 
0.37 


S Raina 
34 
24 
0.45 
29 
1.09 
D Bravo 
25 
20 
0.42 


A Morkel 
28 
20 
0.22 


S Badrinath 
30 
26 
0.21 


MS Dhoni 
35 
27 
2.5 


R Jadeja 
23 
27 
0.33 
15 
0.4 
R Ashwin 
9 
10 
0.21 
26 
1.26 
S Jakati 
14 
11 
0.38 
29 
1.15 
D Bollinger 
20 
17 
0.23 
15 
0.64 
TOTAL 
267 
222 
5.61 
142 
6.33 
Interestingly our system has removed both Bravo and Morkel as bowlers. Two people who are almost certain to bowl, but even though we know this, we stick with the system. If using a system where we see a flaw like this we must then sit down and adjust the system until we get the answer we are looking for. We can't just change the results so Morkel and Bravo are bowling just because we know it's right, the system has to pick the bowlers. Why not change it to make it more accurate? Because we won't always know every player on the team so the system will stay flawed for teams where we are unfamiliar with the players.
Batting across all the batsmen is calculated as (120/222) x 267 = 144
Our calculations for 120 balls score goes down to Morkel at 104 balls giving us 136 runs. Adding on the other 16 gives us 152. The next batsman would be Badrinath who scores much faster then 1 run per ball, so we could tweak the system in light of such a large remaining number of balls. We could calculate the runs by applying Badrinath's Strike Rate to those last 16 balls and it would suit the system well. However we won't change it now because we already started. We can take a note of it and if you want to introduce this tweak then bring it in next game. For simplicity sake I'll leave it as it is.
So averaging out the batting ratings gives us (144+152) / 2 = 148
Batting = 148
Bowling = 142 for 6.3
Fielding = 5.6
As fielding and wickets are worth so much we will stop rounding them off and use the first decimal place. I can be accused of rounding off too often but it's all in the name of simplicity and speed.
Let's now take a look at the Mumbai team.
Name 
Runs 
Balls 
Fielding 
Runs/4 overs 
Wkts/4 Overs 
R Levi 
31 
21 
0.36 


S Tendulker 
40 
32 
0.38 


R Sharma 
32 
24 
0.43 
15 
0.56 
A Rayudu 
26 
22 
0.5 


J Franklin 
33 
26 
0.29 


D Karthik 
26 
20 
0.62 


K Pollard 
29 
18 
0.54 
16 
0.7 
H Singh 
17 
12 
0.29 
26 
1.04 
L Malinga 
9 
8 
0.26 
27 
1.53 
A Nechim* 
9 
9 
0.04 
30 
1.17 
P Ojha 
5 
5 
0.22 
27 
1.43 
TOTAL 
257 
197 
3.93 
141 
6.43 
*A Nechim is listed as A Ahmed in many places. His full name is Abu Nechim Ahmed.
Batting = (150 + 156) / 2 = 157
Bowling = 141 for 6.4
Fielding = 3.9
Chennai bat vs Mumbai bowling = (148+141)/2 = Chennai 144.5
Mumbai bat vs Chennai bowling = (157+142)/2 = Mumbai 149.5
Chennai fielding vs Mumbai fielding = 5.6 vs 3.9 = Chennai (1.7 x 4) = 6.8
Chennai wickets vs Mumbai wickets = 6.3 vs 6.43 = Mumbai (0.13 x 8) = 1.04
We end up with Chennai by 0.76. That's right it has come down to less than 1 run. Our system had to go to decimal places to find us a winner. But being the first match of the season, maybe every game will be this close on the system, we don't know. 0.76 may turn out to be the biggest gulf between two teams in a match! We can guess, surmise and ponder all day or we can just take it as Chennai to win with a rating of 0.76 and move on to the next step.
Well our bank is still at the starting $100, so our maximum bet is $10. Easy.
$2 – {rating10} is the rule. Really? In the light of a real game we have come up with a rating of 0.76 and we were going to minus 10? It now seems that the staking rule number 2 was far too conservative. Given our first game has a rating of 0.76 it's fair to say a rating of ten would actually be huge. We are going to change our rule right here and now to something workable or we'll end up with the same price on every game, $2!
How about this:
$2{rating x 2.5}
Unfortunately we can't change the rule now so for the next game it will be in place. But that means we are now stuck with the unenviable price of $2. Even if we didn't have to minus ten rating points the price would sit at $1.99 so we basically want Chennai at the underdog price. Which means if it is less than $2 then we don't bet, and if it is less than $1.90 we bet on Mumbai.
Actual prices:
Chennai 2.04
Mumbai 1.93
Well, the system has as backing Chennai at $2.04. At least we get to bet.
Let's run through the checklist for Chennai:
Base bet 
2.50% 
Value bet by 10cents or more* 
No 
Both batting and bowling scores higher 
No 
Fielding score higher 
1.00% 
Overall comparison rating 20 or more higher 
No 
Won the toss 
No 
Wickets 7 or higher 
No 
Chosen by stats and the outsider on the market 
2.00% 
So that gives us a big 5.5% ($5.50) on Chennai.
The advantage of writing this during the game is I can give the result.
Mumbai won it easily and our bank has dropped to $94.50.
Interestingly the Mumbai team had a lower fielding rating and yet they made no mistakes in the field.
The system only chose Chennai by a fraction and the odds by a mere 4 cents, so it's fair to say there was always the danger we'd lose this one.